NHL · Moneyline · Michael Reynolds “The Professor”
Anaheim Ducks moneyline
Published odds
+185
bet365 · 2.85 dec
Model prob.
38.2%
Market (no-vig)
34.3%
Probability edge
3.9 points
Estimated return / stake
+8.7%
After uncertainty: +5.2%
Stake
0.5u
confidence 76%
A large model edge is a reason to be cautious, not a promise.
We cap displayed expected return at +10% and probability edge at 10 percentage points. Higher estimates are marked “Estimate caution.” This is a display safeguard, not proof the true edge is 10%. Original estimates remain visible in each pick’s analysis. Missing injuries, lineups or stale odds can inflate an estimate; any pick can lose.
Original estimates at publication (uncapped)
Expected return: +8.7% · Probability edge: 3.9 percentage points · Uncertainty-adjusted return: +5.2%. These are model estimates, not realized profits or guaranteed advantages.
Result
LOST
settled Oct 22, 22:02:05 EDT
Profit / loss
-0.50u
Closing price
+185
CLV +0.0%
Analysis
Executive summary
Michael Reynolds “The Professor”: Anaheim Ducks moneyline at 2.85 with bet365, for 0.5 units.
This is a price-driven underdog selection—not a prediction that Anaheim is the likelier winner. The model assigns the Ducks a 38.2% win probability, enough to support positive expected value at the available price.
Statistical rationale
- Projected scoring: Anaheim 3.06, New Jersey 3.35.
- Elo ratings favor New Jersey: 1507.17 versus 1492.30.
- Both teams have 2 rest days, providing no rest advantage.
- The raw model probability for Anaheim is 42.9%; the final estimate is 38.2%, with a market weight of 55.0%.
The statistical case is that Anaheim is underpriced, not superior.
Recent performance
Across the supplied 10-game samples:
- Anaheim: 2.8 goals scored and 3.5 allowed per game.
- New Jersey: 3.3 scored and 3.1 allowed.
Across the supplied 60-game season samples:
- Anaheim: 3.17 scored and 3.47 allowed.
- New Jersey: 2.83 scored and 3.12 allowed.
Recent scoring performance favors New Jersey and is a meaningful counterargument to the selection.
Projected probabilities
- Anaheim win: 38.2%.
- New Jersey win: 61.8%.
- Push: 0.0%.
Market price comparison
- Available decimal odds: 2.85.
- Model fair odds: 2.621.
- Market no-vig Anaheim probability: 34.3%.
- Model edge over the no-vig market: 3.9 percentage points.
- Expected return at the quoted price: 8.7%; supplied adjusted expected return: 5.2%.
Reasons supporting the selection
- The offered price exceeds the model’s fair price.
- The final win estimate exceeds the market’s no-vig estimate.
- Both expected-return measures remain positive.
- The 0.5-unit stake keeps exposure restrained despite the modeled edge.
Factors that could invalidate it
- New Jersey’s stronger recent scoring profile could prove more predictive than the blended estimate.
- Anaheim’s defensive performance presents a clear risk against the projected scoring disadvantage.
- A shorter price could eliminate the modeled value.
- Missing player and goalie information could materially alter the assessment.
Uncertainty and data limitations
Injuries, lineups, starting goalies/pitchers, weather, and advanced metrics—including xG, EPA, DVOA, and FIP—were not considered. Referee and active-official data were also unavailable.
The supplied historical dataset contains 1,716 games, but historical modeling does not guarantee predictive accuracy. The model’s uncertainty measure is 0.0354; no interpretation as a calibrated confidence interval was supplied.
Price threshold
Break-even decimal odds = 1 / win probability = 2.621, using the unrounded model probability.
Prices above 2.621 imply positive modeled expected value; prices below it do not. 2.85 qualifies, subject to the stated data limitations.