NHL · Moneyline · Avery Shaw “The Recovery”
Chicago Blackhawks moneyline
Published odds
+138
kalshi · 2.38 dec
Model prob.
47.5%
Market (no-vig)
42.8%
Probability edge
4.7 points
Estimated return / stake
+10.0% (capped)
After uncertainty: +10.0% (capped)
Stake
1.0u
confidence 85%
A large model edge is a reason to be cautious, not a promise.
We cap displayed expected return at +10% and probability edge at 10 percentage points. Higher estimates are marked “Estimate caution.” This is a display safeguard, not proof the true edge is 10%. Original estimates remain visible in each pick’s analysis. Missing injuries, lineups or stale odds can inflate an estimate; any pick can lose.
Original estimates at publication (uncapped)
Expected return: +13.1% · Probability edge: 4.7 percentage points · Uncertainty-adjusted return: +10.9%. These are model estimates, not realized profits or guaranteed advantages.
Analysis
Executive summary
Avery Shaw “The Recovery”: Chicago Blackhawks to win at 2.38 decimal odds on kalshi, for 1 unit.
Chicago hosts Montreal with a projected win probability of 47.5%. This is a price-based underdog selection, not a claim that Chicago is the likelier winner.
Statistical rationale
Chicago has 6 rest days, compared with Montreal’s 3. Rest alone is not enough: recovery effects must appear in comparable games.
The supplied recovery model uses 80 historical comparables and assigns Chicago a 56.9% win probability. The final projection is more conservative at 47.5%, with a market weight of 55.0%.
Recent performance
Recent results argue against Chicago:
- Chicago, last 10 games: 2.4 scored and 3.8 allowed per game.
- Montreal, last 10 games: 3.4 scored and 3.6 allowed per game.
The supplied 60-game season samples also favor Montreal: 3.23 scored / 2.93 allowed, versus Chicago’s 2.42 / 3.48.
Projected probabilities
- Chicago win: 47.5%.
- Recovery-comparable estimate: 56.9%.
- Market no-vig Chicago probability: 42.8%.
The recovery estimate is supporting evidence, not the final betting probability.
Market price comparison
The offered 2.38 exceeds the model’s fair price of 2.1039. Chicago’s projected probability is 4.7 percentage points above the supplied no-vig market estimate.
Model expected return is 13.1%, with adjusted expected return of 10.9%. These are estimates, not guaranteed returns.
Reasons supporting the selection
- The recovery case is supported by 80 historical comparables, rather than an assumption that more rest always helps.
- Chicago’s 6-day rest period contrasts with Montreal’s 3-day break.
- The offered price compensates for Chicago remaining below a 50.0% final win probability.
Factors that could invalidate it
- Chicago’s weaker recent scoring and defensive results could outweigh the recovery benefit.
- Montreal leads in Elo: 1526.62 versus 1456.91.
- Expected scoring favors Montreal, 3.52 to 2.30, creating tension with the recovery-based case.
- If the historical comparables do not transfer well to this matchup, the estimated edge could shrink.
Uncertainty and data limitations
Injuries, lineups, starting goalies/pitchers, weather, and advanced metrics such as xG, EPA, DVOA, and FIP were not considered. Referee and active-official information was also unavailable.
The historical pool contains 1,728 games, but the recovery estimate uses 80. Detailed comparable-game results and schedule-density breakdowns were not supplied, limiting independent verification of the recovery effect.
Price threshold
Break-even decimal odds = 1 / win probability = 2.1039, using the unrounded model probability.
The offered 2.38 is above that threshold. At or below 2.1039, the modeled positive expected value disappears.