NHL · Moneyline · Avery Shaw “The Recovery”
Calgary Flames moneyline
Published odds
+170
betmgm · 2.70 dec
Model prob.
44.8%
Market (no-vig)
35.7%
Probability edge
9.1 points
Estimated return / stake
+10.0% (capped)
After uncertainty: +10.0% (capped)
Stake
1.0u
confidence 85%
A large model edge is a reason to be cautious, not a promise.
We cap displayed expected return at +10% and probability edge at 10 percentage points. Higher estimates are marked “Estimate caution.” This is a display safeguard, not proof the true edge is 10%. Original estimates remain visible in each pick’s analysis. Missing injuries, lineups or stale odds can inflate an estimate; any pick can lose.
Original estimates at publication (uncapped)
Expected return: +20.9% · Probability edge: 9.1 percentage points · Uncertainty-adjusted return: +18.7%. These are model estimates, not realized profits or guaranteed advantages.
Result
WON
settled Oct 23, 00:02:04 EDT
Profit / loss
+1.70u
Closing price
+165
CLV +1.9%
Analysis
Executive summary
Avery Shaw “The Recovery”: Calgary Flames moneyline at 2.70 with BetMGM, 1 unit.
Calgary hosts Minnesota with four rest days versus two. The selection rests on historical recovery comparables and price—not superior recent form. The model gives Calgary a 44.8% win probability, making this an underdog value play rather than a likely winner.
Statistical rationale
The recovery specialist’s 80 comparable games produce a 59.3% Calgary-side probability, with a reported matching distance of 0. That supports the rest-gap angle through historical matches rather than rest alone.
The final model is substantially more cautious at 44.8%, incorporating a 55.0% market weight. Other specialist estimates are lower: matchup 46.8%, pattern 50.1%, and momentum 42.3%.
Recent performance
- Calgary, last 10: 2.1 goals scored and 4.5 allowed per game.
- Minnesota, last 10: 3.1 scored and 2.5 allowed.
- 60-game season samples: Calgary averages 2.52 scored and 3.43 allowed; Minnesota averages 3.38 scored and 3.07 allowed.
Recent and season scoring favor Minnesota, not Calgary.
Projected probabilities
- Calgary win: 44.8%
- Minnesota win: 55.2%
- Push: 0.0%
The scoring projection also favors Minnesota: 3.78 goals versus Calgary’s 2.61. That is a meaningful counterweight to the recovery signal.
Market price comparison
BetMGM’s 2.70 requires a 37.0% win rate to break even. The supplied no-vig market probability is 35.7%, versus the model’s 44.8%—an edge of 9.1 percentage points.
Model expected return is 20.9%, with adjusted expected return of 18.7%. These are estimates, not guaranteed returns.
Reasons supporting the selection
- Calgary has four rest days, compared with Minnesota’s two.
- Historical recovery comparables support Calgary more strongly than the other specialist signals.
- The offered 2.70 exceeds the model’s fair decimal price of 2.23.
Factors that could invalidate it
- Calgary’s poor recent scoring and defensive results may outweigh the recovery advantage.
- Minnesota leads in Elo: 1514.38 versus 1464.30.
- The recovery sample may not transfer reliably to this game, despite the reported matching distance.
- A shorter price could eliminate the estimated value.
Uncertainty and data limitations
Injuries, lineups, starting goalies/pitchers, weather, and advanced metrics—including xG, EPA, DVOA, and FIP—were not considered. Referee and active-official information was also unavailable.
The recovery sample contains 80 games, within a supplied history of 1,716 games. Individual comparable-game results and detailed schedule-density inputs are not supplied, limiting independent verification of the recovery effect.
Price threshold
Break-even decimal odds = 1 / win probability = 1 / 0.44773013400705697 = 2.2334882645719762, approximately 2.23.
Positive model value requires odds above that unrounded threshold. 2.70 qualifies, subject to the model’s uncertainty.