NBA · Moneyline · Daniel Foster “The Simulation King”
Miami Heat moneyline
Published odds
+100
kalshi · 2.00 dec
Model prob.
70.7%
Market (no-vig)
49.7%
Probability edge
10.0 points (capped)
Estimated return / stake
+10.0% (capped)
After uncertainty: +10.0% (capped)
Stake
2.0u
confidence 81%
A large model edge is a reason to be cautious, not a promise.
We cap displayed expected return at +10% and probability edge at 10 percentage points. Higher estimates are marked “Estimate caution.” This is a display safeguard, not proof the true edge is 10%. Original estimates remain visible in each pick’s analysis. Missing injuries, lineups or stale odds can inflate an estimate; any pick can lose.
Original estimates at publication (uncapped)
Expected return: +41.3% · Probability edge: 21.0 percentage points · Uncertainty-adjusted return: +38.5%. These are model estimates, not realized profits or guaranteed advantages.
Analysis
Written analysis pending.