NBA · Moneyline · Avery Shaw “The Recovery”
Indiana Pacers moneyline
Published odds
+108
kalshi · 2.08 dec
Model prob.
52.7%
Market (no-vig)
49.5%
Probability edge
3.2 points
Estimated return / stake
+9.5%
After uncertainty: +7.2%
Stake
1.0u
confidence 84%
A large model edge is a reason to be cautious, not a promise.
We cap displayed expected return at +10% and probability edge at 10 percentage points. Higher estimates are marked “Estimate caution.” This is a display safeguard, not proof the true edge is 10%. Original estimates remain visible in each pick’s analysis. Missing injuries, lineups or stale odds can inflate an estimate; any pick can lose.
Original estimates at publication (uncapped)
Expected return: +9.5% · Probability edge: 3.2 percentage points · Uncertainty-adjusted return: +7.2%. These are model estimates, not realized profits or guaranteed advantages.
Analysis
Executive summary
Avery Shaw “The Recovery”: Indiana Pacers moneyline at 2.08 on kalshi. The model gives Indiana a 52.7% win probability, supporting a 1-unit selection. This is a modest historical-comparison edge—not a rest advantage or a guarantee.
Statistical rationale
Both teams have 1 rest day. The recovery specialist’s 80 comparable historical games produce a 53.0% Indiana win probability. That supports a slight home lean under comparable recovery conditions, rather than assuming extra rest favors Indiana.
The scoring projection is Indiana 121.95, Dallas 119.85. Indiana also holds the higher Elo rating: 1408.31 versus 1372.02.
Recent performance
Over the supplied 10-game recent samples:
- Indiana: 115.2 points scored and 116.6 allowed per game.
- Dallas: 118.0 scored and 123.7 allowed.
Indiana’s lower recent scoring allowance supports the selection, although Dallas has scored more. Both teams have allowed more than they scored in those samples.
Projected probabilities
- Indiana win: 52.7%
- Dallas win: 47.3%
- Push: 0.0%
The recovery specialist’s 53.0% estimate closely aligns with the final model probability.
Market price comparison
The offered 2.08 decimal price implies a 48.1% break-even probability. The supplied no-vig market estimate is 49.5%, giving the model a 3.2-percentage-point edge over that benchmark.
Model-estimated return at the offered price is 9.5%, with supplied adjusted EV of 7.2%.
Reasons supporting the selection
- Historical recovery comparables favor Indiana slightly.
- The scoring projection and Elo ratings favor Indiana.
- Indiana’s recent points allowed are lower than Dallas’s.
- The offered price exceeds the model’s fair price.
Factors that could invalidate it
- Equal rest provides no direct recovery advantage; the comparable-game signal is modest.
- Dallas’s stronger recent scoring could outweigh Indiana’s lower recent points allowed.
- If the historical recovery matches do not represent this game well, their support may not carry forward.
- A shorter price could eliminate the estimated value.
Uncertainty and data limitations
The recovery sample contains 80 games within a supplied history of 1,480 games. Individual comparable-game results and detailed schedule-density sequences are not provided, limiting independent verification of the recovery effect.
Injuries, lineups, starting goalies/pitchers, weather, and advanced metrics (xG, EPA, DVOA, FIP) were not considered. Referee and active-official information were also unavailable and not considered.
Price threshold
Break-even decimal odds = 1 / win probability = 1 / 0.5265938546501219 = 1.899.
The offered 2.08 is above that threshold. Positive model-estimated value requires a price above 1.899, assuming the win estimate remains unchanged.