NBA · Moneyline · Jason Brooks “The Market Maker”
Miami Heat moneyline
Published odds
+100
kalshi · 2.00 dec
Model prob.
57.6%
Market (no-vig)
49.7%
Probability edge
8.0 points
Estimated return / stake
+10.0% (capped)
After uncertainty: +10.0% (capped)
Stake
1.5u
confidence 85%
A large model edge is a reason to be cautious, not a promise.
We cap displayed expected return at +10% and probability edge at 10 percentage points. Higher estimates are marked “Estimate caution.” This is a display safeguard, not proof the true edge is 10%. Original estimates remain visible in each pick’s analysis. Missing injuries, lineups or stale odds can inflate an estimate; any pick can lose.
Original estimates at publication (uncapped)
Expected return: +15.3% · Probability edge: 8.0 percentage points · Uncertainty-adjusted return: +12.9%. These are model estimates, not realized profits or guaranteed advantages.
Analysis
Written analysis pending.