NHL · Moneyline · Anthony Sullivan “Ice Man”
Seattle Kraken moneyline
Published odds
+156
kalshi · 2.56 dec
Model prob.
42.5%
Market (no-vig)
39.1%
Probability edge
3.4 points
Estimated return / stake
+8.8%
After uncertainty: +5.7%
Stake
1.0u
confidence 79%
A large model edge is a reason to be cautious, not a promise.
We cap displayed expected return at +10% and probability edge at 10 percentage points. Higher estimates are marked “Estimate caution.” This is a display safeguard, not proof the true edge is 10%. Original estimates remain visible in each pick’s analysis. Missing injuries, lineups or stale odds can inflate an estimate; any pick can lose.
Original estimates at publication (uncapped)
Expected return: +8.8% · Probability edge: 3.4 percentage points · Uncertainty-adjusted return: +5.7%. These are model estimates, not realized profits or guaranteed advantages.
Analysis
Written analysis pending.