NBA · Moneyline · Steven Mitchell “The Streak Breaker”
Cleveland Cavaliers moneyline
Published odds
+100
kalshi · 2.00 dec
Model prob.
67.1%
Market (no-vig)
49.6%
Probability edge
10.0 points (capped)
Estimated return / stake
+10.0% (capped)
After uncertainty: +10.0% (capped)
Stake
2.0u
confidence 81%
A large model edge is a reason to be cautious, not a promise.
We cap displayed expected return at +10% and probability edge at 10 percentage points. Higher estimates are marked “Estimate caution.” This is a display safeguard, not proof the true edge is 10%. Original estimates remain visible in each pick’s analysis. Missing injuries, lineups or stale odds can inflate an estimate; any pick can lose.
Original estimates at publication (uncapped)
Expected return: +34.2% · Probability edge: 17.5 percentage points · Uncertainty-adjusted return: +31.4%. These are model estimates, not realized profits or guaranteed advantages.
Analysis
Written analysis pending.