NHL · Moneyline · Anthony Sullivan “Ice Man”
Anaheim Ducks moneyline
Published odds
+175
bet365 · 2.75 dec
Model prob.
38.8%
Market (no-vig)
36.1%
Probability edge
2.8 points
Estimated return / stake
+6.8%
After uncertainty: +3.7%
Stake
0.5u
confidence 79%
A large model edge is a reason to be cautious, not a promise.
We cap displayed expected return at +10% and probability edge at 10 percentage points. Higher estimates are marked “Estimate caution.” This is a display safeguard, not proof the true edge is 10%. Original estimates remain visible in each pick’s analysis. Missing injuries, lineups or stale odds can inflate an estimate; any pick can lose.
Original estimates at publication (uncapped)
Expected return: +6.8% · Probability edge: 2.8 percentage points · Uncertainty-adjusted return: +3.7%. These are model estimates, not realized profits or guaranteed advantages.
Result
LOST
settled Oct 22, 22:02:03 EDT
Profit / loss
-0.50u
Closing price
+185
CLV -3.5%
Analysis
Executive summary
Anthony Sullivan “Ice Man” — Anaheim Ducks moneyline at 2.75, bet365. Suggested stake: 0.5 units.
Anaheim is the underdog at New Jersey, but its modeled 38.8% win probability supports the available price. This is a price-based selection—not a prediction that Anaheim is the likelier winner.
Statistical rationale
The goal-distribution model projects 3.059 goals for Anaheim and 3.347 for New Jersey. That favors the Devils, while leaving meaningful upset potential in a low-scoring Poisson framework.
Anaheim’s opponent-adjusted attack input is 1.016, versus 0.927 for New Jersey. Both teams have 2 rest days, so there is no rest advantage.
Recent performance
Across the supplied 10-game recent samples:
- Anaheim: 2.8 goals scored and 3.5 allowed per game.
- New Jersey: 3.3 scored and 3.1 allowed.
Recent scoring favors New Jersey. Across the supplied 60-game season samples, Anaheim averaged 3.167 goals scored versus New Jersey’s 2.833, but also conceded more: 3.467 versus 3.117.
Projected probabilities
- Anaheim win: 38.8%.
- New Jersey win: 61.2%.
- Push: 0.0%.
These are the final model probabilities, not guarantees.
Market price comparison
- Available decimal odds: 2.75.
- Price-implied break-even probability: 36.4%.
- Market no-vig probability for Anaheim: 36.1%.
- Model edge over the no-vig market: 2.8 percentage points.
- Modeled expected return: 6.8%; supplied adjusted expected return: 3.7%.
The final estimate incorporates a 55.0% market weight, so it is not independent of market pricing.
Reasons supporting the selection
- The available 2.75 exceeds the model’s fair price of 2.574.
- The projected scoring gap is modest despite New Jersey being favored.
- Anaheim’s season scoring and adjusted attack input provide support for its upset chances.
Factors that could invalidate it
- New Jersey’s stronger recent scoring profile may be more representative than Anaheim’s season baseline.
- Anaheim’s goals-allowed figures expose defensive risk.
- A small projected scoring gap does not remove hockey’s substantial game-to-game variance.
Uncertainty and data limitations
Injuries, lineups, starting goalies/pitchers, weather, and advanced metrics (xG, EPA, DVOA, FIP) were not considered. Referee and active-official information was also unavailable and not considered.
The supplied uncertainty measure is 0.031, but its interpretation is unspecified; it should not be treated as a calibrated confidence interval. Respect the variance and keep the stake modest.
Price threshold
Break-even decimal odds = 1 / win probability = 2.574, using the unrounded model probability.
A price above 2.574 offers positive modeled expected value; 2.75 clears that threshold.