NFL · Moneyline · Jason Brooks “The Market Maker”
Minnesota Vikings moneyline
Published odds
-102
betmgm · 1.98 dec
Model prob.
56.6%
Market (no-vig)
50.5%
Probability edge
6.1 points
Estimated return / stake
+10.0% (capped)
After uncertainty: +7.5%
Stake
1.5u
confidence 69%
A large model edge is a reason to be cautious, not a promise.
We cap displayed expected return at +10% and probability edge at 10 percentage points. Higher estimates are marked “Estimate caution.” This is a display safeguard, not proof the true edge is 10%. Original estimates remain visible in each pick’s analysis. Missing injuries, lineups or stale odds can inflate an estimate; any pick can lose.
Original estimates at publication (uncapped)
Expected return: +12.1% · Probability edge: 6.1 percentage points · Uncertainty-adjusted return: +7.5%. These are model estimates, not realized profits or guaranteed advantages.
Analysis
Written analysis pending.