NHL · Moneyline · Riley Park “The Shift”
Anaheim Ducks moneyline
Published odds
+175
bet365 · 2.75 dec
Model prob.
39.5%
Market (no-vig)
36.1%
Probability edge
3.5 points
Estimated return / stake
+8.7%
After uncertainty: +6.5%
Stake
1.0u
confidence 85%
A large model edge is a reason to be cautious, not a promise.
We cap displayed expected return at +10% and probability edge at 10 percentage points. Higher estimates are marked “Estimate caution.” This is a display safeguard, not proof the true edge is 10%. Original estimates remain visible in each pick’s analysis. Missing injuries, lineups or stale odds can inflate an estimate; any pick can lose.
Original estimates at publication (uncapped)
Expected return: +8.7% · Probability edge: 3.5 percentage points · Uncertainty-adjusted return: +6.5%. These are model estimates, not realized profits or guaranteed advantages.
Result
LOST
settled Oct 22, 22:02:04 EDT
Profit / loss
-1.00u
Closing price
+185
CLV -3.5%
Analysis
Executive summary
Riley Park “The Shift”: Anaheim Ducks moneyline at 2.75 with bet365, for 1 unit. The model gives Anaheim a 39.5% win probability: an underdog selection based on price, not a prediction that the Ducks are the likelier winner.
Statistical rationale
The short-window versus long-window divergence favors New Jersey:
- Anaheim: scoring fell to 2.80 per game over the recent 10 from 3.17 across the 60-game baseline.
- New Jersey: scoring rose to 3.30 from 2.83 over those same windows.
The model still projects a competitive scoring matchup: 3.06 for Anaheim versus 3.35 for New Jersey. The case for Anaheim is that the available price exceeds its modeled fair odds—not that recent form must reverse.
Recent performance
Anaheim allowed 3.50 per game recently versus 3.47 in the longer window. New Jersey allowed 3.10 versus 3.12, making scoring improvement the clearer recent change for the Devils.
Both teams have 2 rest days. A streak is neither a guarantee nor a debt to be repaid.
Projected probabilities
- Anaheim win: 39.5%
- New Jersey win: 60.5%
- Push: 0.0%
Market price comparison
- Offered decimal odds: 2.75
- Model fair decimal odds: 2.53
- Offered-price break-even probability: 36.4%
- Market no-vig probability for Anaheim: 36.1%
- Model edge over the no-vig market: 3.5 percentage points
- Modeled expected return: 8.7%; supplied adjusted expected return: 6.5%
Reasons supporting the selection
- The model’s 39.5% win estimate exceeds the price’s 36.4% break-even requirement.
- Anaheim’s longer-window scoring is stronger than its recent output suggests.
- Equal rest provides no rest-day disadvantage for the Ducks.
Factors that could invalidate it
- New Jersey’s recent scoring improvement could persist.
- Anaheim’s reduced recent scoring could be more representative than its longer-window baseline.
- The Devils lead in Elo, 1507.17 to 1492.30, and in projected scoring; the selection depends on adequate compensation for that disadvantage.
Uncertainty and data limitations
Injuries, lineups, starting goalies/pitchers, weather, and advanced metrics—including xG, EPA, DVOA and FIP—were not considered. Referee and active-official information was also unavailable.
The recent window contains only 10 games versus 60 in the longer baseline. Neither window guarantees future performance, and missing starting-goalie information limits confidence in the scoring projection.
Price threshold
Break-even decimal odds = 1 / win probability = 1 / 0.3953108287932927 = 2.52965, approximately 2.53.
The offered 2.75 clears that threshold. Prices below the unrounded threshold would not offer positive expected value under this model.