NHL · Moneyline · Riley Park “The Shift”
Seattle Kraken moneyline
Published odds
+146
fanduel · 2.46 dec
Model prob.
45.7%
Market (no-vig)
39.3%
Probability edge
6.4 points
Estimated return / stake
+10.0% (capped)
After uncertainty: +10.0% (capped)
Stake
1.0u
confidence 85%
A large model edge is a reason to be cautious, not a promise.
We cap displayed expected return at +10% and probability edge at 10 percentage points. Higher estimates are marked “Estimate caution.” This is a display safeguard, not proof the true edge is 10%. Original estimates remain visible in each pick’s analysis. Missing injuries, lineups or stale odds can inflate an estimate; any pick can lose.
Original estimates at publication (uncapped)
Expected return: +12.4% · Probability edge: 6.4 percentage points · Uncertainty-adjusted return: +10.2%. These are model estimates, not realized profits or guaranteed advantages.
Result
WON
settled Oct 23, 01:02:04 EDT
Profit / loss
+1.46u
Closing price
+146
CLV +0.0%
Analysis
Executive summary
Riley Park “The Shift”: Seattle Kraken moneyline at 2.46 on FanDuel, 1 unit. Seattle is not the projected favorite, but its 45.7% modeled win probability makes the offered price attractive. This is a price-based selection—not a claim that recent scoring will persist.
Statistical rationale
The short-window improvement is stronger for Seattle:
- Seattle: 3.9 goals scored per game over the recent 10-game window versus 3.12 over the 60-game baseline.
- Utah: 3.8 recently versus 3.5 over its 60-game baseline.
That divergence supports Seattle’s case, but longer-window strength favors Utah: its Elo is 1511.51, compared with Seattle’s 1489.93.
Recent performance
Seattle allowed 3.4 goals per game recently versus 3.33 over the longer window. Utah allowed 3.1 versus 3.07.
Seattle’s improvement is therefore primarily offensive, not defensive. A streak is neither a guarantee nor a debt to be repaid.
Projected probabilities
- Seattle win: 45.7%
- Utah win: 54.3%
- Push: 0.0%
The scoring projection favors Utah, 3.70–3.12, reinforcing that Seattle is a value underdog rather than the likelier winner.
Market price comparison
- FanDuel decimal odds: 2.46
- Offered-price break-even probability: 40.7%
- Market no-vig Seattle probability: 39.3%
- Model edge over no-vig market: 6.4 percentage points
- Modeled expected return: 12.4%; adjusted estimate: 10.2%
Reasons supporting the selection
- Seattle’s recent scoring has improved more sharply relative to its longer-window baseline.
- The modeled win probability exceeds both the offered-price break-even probability and the market’s no-vig estimate.
- The available 2.46 exceeds the model’s fair price of 2.1891.
Factors that could invalidate it
- Seattle’s recent offensive improvement may not persist.
- Its recent goals allowed remain above the longer-window baseline.
- Utah leads in Elo and projected scoring, and has 3 rest days against Seattle’s 2.
- If Seattle’s true win probability falls below 40.7%, the offered price no longer provides positive expected value.
Uncertainty and data limitations
Injuries, lineups, starting goalies/pitchers, weather, and advanced metrics—including xG, EPA, DVOA, and FIP—were not considered. Referee and active-official information was also unavailable.
The recent window contains only 10 games, compared with the 60-game baseline. That limits confidence in treating the scoring divergence as durable. The model estimate is not a guarantee.
Price threshold
Break-even decimal odds = 1 / win probability = 1 / 0.4568157193611482 = 2.1891.
The offered 2.46 clears that threshold. Positive modeled value requires odds above 2.1891, assuming the win-probability estimate remains unchanged.