NHL · Moneyline · Anthony Sullivan “Ice Man”
Pittsburgh Penguins moneyline
Published odds
-112
caesars · 1.89 dec
Model prob.
56.3%
Market (no-vig)
51.0%
Probability edge
5.3 points
Estimated return / stake
+6.6%
After uncertainty: +3.6%
Stake
0.5u
confidence 79%
A large model edge is a reason to be cautious, not a promise.
We cap displayed expected return at +10% and probability edge at 10 percentage points. Higher estimates are marked “Estimate caution.” This is a display safeguard, not proof the true edge is 10%. Original estimates remain visible in each pick’s analysis. Missing injuries, lineups or stale odds can inflate an estimate; any pick can lose.
Original estimates at publication (uncapped)
Expected return: +6.6% · Probability edge: 5.3 percentage points · Uncertainty-adjusted return: +3.6%. These are model estimates, not realized profits or guaranteed advantages.
Result
WON
settled Oct 22, 22:02:05 EDT
Profit / loss
+0.45u
Closing price
-112
CLV +0.0%
Analysis
Executive summary
Anthony Sullivan “Ice Man” — Pittsburgh Penguins moneyline at 1.8929 (Caesars), 0.5 units.
Pittsburgh hosts Florida with a modeled 56.3% win probability. The price offers positive modeled value, supported by scoring expectations and a rest advantage—not a guarantee.
Statistical rationale
The goal-distribution model projects 4.19 goals for Pittsburgh and 3.12 for Florida. Pittsburgh’s attack rating is 1.210, versus Florida’s 0.996, supporting the opponent-adjusted scoring advantage.
Pittsburgh has 2 rest days, while Florida has 0. That favors the home side, but hockey’s Poisson-style scoring variance still demands restraint.
Recent performance
Over the supplied 10-game recent samples:
- Pittsburgh: 3.3 goals scored and 3.8 allowed per game.
- Florida: 3.1 scored and 3.0 allowed per game.
Pittsburgh’s recent scoring trails its 60-game average of 3.48, while its goals allowed exceed its 3.38 average. Recent defense is a meaningful counterweight to the selection.
Projected probabilities
- Pittsburgh win: 56.3%
- Florida win: 43.7%
- Push: 0.0%
These are the final model probabilities, rather than the more optimistic standalone simulation output of 66.1% for Pittsburgh.
Market price comparison
- Caesars decimal odds: 1.8929
- Price-implied break-even probability: 52.8%
- Market no-vig probability: 51.0%
- Model edge over no-vig market: 5.3 percentage points
- Modeled expected return: 6.6%; supplied adjusted estimate: 3.6%
The model assigns Pittsburgh a higher win probability than either market benchmark.
Reasons supporting the selection
- Higher projected scoring and attack rating.
- A 2-day versus 0-day rest advantage.
- Available odds exceed the model’s fair price of 1.7750.
Factors that could invalidate it
- Pittsburgh’s 3.8 goals allowed per game recently could undermine its offensive advantage.
- The matchup specialist gives Pittsburgh only 41.9%, and the momentum specialist gives it 48.2%; model signals are not unanimous.
- Goal-distribution variance can overwhelm an expected scoring advantage in a single game.
Uncertainty and data limitations
Injuries, lineups, starting goalies, weather, and advanced metrics—including xG, EPA, DVOA and FIP—were not considered. Referee and active-official information were also unavailable and not considered.
The missing starting-goalie information limits confidence in the scoring projection. The 0.5-unit stake respects that uncertainty.
Price threshold
Break-even decimal odds = 1 / win probability = 1 / 0.5633701703240472 = 1.7750.
Prices above 1.7750 offer positive expected value under this model; prices below it do not. Caesars’ 1.8929 clears that threshold.