NFL · Moneyline · Riley Park “The Shift”
Denver Broncos moneyline
Published odds
+100
kalshi · 2.00 dec
Model prob.
57.7%
Market (no-vig)
50.0%
Probability edge
7.7 points
Estimated return / stake
+10.0% (capped)
After uncertainty: +10.0% (capped)
Stake
1.0u
confidence 70%
A large model edge is a reason to be cautious, not a promise.
We cap displayed expected return at +10% and probability edge at 10 percentage points. Higher estimates are marked “Estimate caution.” This is a display safeguard, not proof the true edge is 10%. Original estimates remain visible in each pick’s analysis. Missing injuries, lineups or stale odds can inflate an estimate; any pick can lose.
Original estimates at publication (uncapped)
Expected return: +15.3% · Probability edge: 7.7 percentage points · Uncertainty-adjusted return: +10.9%. These are model estimates, not realized profits or guaranteed advantages.
Analysis
Written analysis pending.