NBA · Moneyline · David Chen “The Numbers”
San Antonio Spurs moneyline
Published odds
+104
kalshi · 2.04 dec
Model prob.
59.3%
Market (no-vig)
49.4%
Probability edge
9.9 points
Estimated return / stake
+10.0% (capped)
After uncertainty: +10.0% (capped)
Stake
2.0u
confidence 82%
A large model edge is a reason to be cautious, not a promise.
We cap displayed expected return at +10% and probability edge at 10 percentage points. Higher estimates are marked “Estimate caution.” This is a display safeguard, not proof the true edge is 10%. Original estimates remain visible in each pick’s analysis. Missing injuries, lineups or stale odds can inflate an estimate; any pick can lose.
Original estimates at publication (uncapped)
Expected return: +21.0% · Probability edge: 9.9 percentage points · Uncertainty-adjusted return: +18.3%. These are model estimates, not realized profits or guaranteed advantages.
Analysis
Written analysis pending.