NHL · Moneyline · Avery Shaw “The Recovery”
Anaheim Ducks moneyline
Published odds
+175
bet365 · 2.75 dec
Model prob.
41.1%
Market (no-vig)
36.1%
Probability edge
5.1 points
Estimated return / stake
+10.0% (capped)
After uncertainty: +10.0% (capped)
Stake
1.0u
confidence 85%
A large model edge is a reason to be cautious, not a promise.
We cap displayed expected return at +10% and probability edge at 10 percentage points. Higher estimates are marked “Estimate caution.” This is a display safeguard, not proof the true edge is 10%. Original estimates remain visible in each pick’s analysis. Missing injuries, lineups or stale odds can inflate an estimate; any pick can lose.
Original estimates at publication (uncapped)
Expected return: +13.1% · Probability edge: 5.1 percentage points · Uncertainty-adjusted return: +10.9%. These are model estimates, not realized profits or guaranteed advantages.
Result
LOST
settled Oct 22, 22:02:04 EDT
Profit / loss
-1.00u
Closing price
+185
CLV -3.5%
Analysis
Executive summary
Avery Shaw “The Recovery”: Anaheim Ducks moneyline at 2.75 with bet365, 1 unit. The model gives Anaheim a 41.1% win probability, making this a price-based underdog selection—not a prediction that Anaheim is the likelier winner.
Statistical rationale
Both teams have 2 rest days, so there is no current rest-gap advantage. The recovery component uses 80 historical comparable games, with a reported match distance of 0 and an Anaheim win estimate of 50.8%.
Recovery effects must appear in real comparable games. This historical component supports the selection, but it does not establish a standalone fatigue advantage. The final model estimate is more conservative.
Recent performance
Over the last 10 games:
- Anaheim: 2.8 goals scored and 3.5 allowed per game.
- New Jersey: 3.3 scored and 3.1 allowed.
Across the supplied 60-game season samples:
- Anaheim: 3.17 scored and 3.47 allowed.
- New Jersey: 2.83 scored and 3.12 allowed.
Recent scoring results favor New Jersey.
Projected probabilities
- Anaheim win: 41.1%.
- New Jersey win: 58.9%.
- Recovery-component Anaheim estimate: 50.8%.
Projected scoring is 3.06 for Anaheim and 3.35 for New Jersey.
Market price comparison
The supplied no-vig market probability for Anaheim is 36.1%, versus the model’s 41.1%—an edge of 5.1 percentage points.
At 2.75, the model estimates a 13.1% expected return, with adjusted expected return of 10.9%. These are estimates, not guaranteed returns.
Reasons supporting the selection
- The offered 2.75 exceeds model fair odds of 2.43.
- Historical recovery comparables provide support beyond the market’s assessment.
- The final estimate remains favorable despite a 55.0% market weight.
Factors that could invalidate it
- Anaheim’s recent scoring deficit could persist.
- New Jersey leads the supplied Elo ratings, 1507.17 to 1492.30, and projected scoring.
- The historical recovery sample may not transfer reliably to this matchup; equal rest alone does not demonstrate an advantage.
Uncertainty and data limitations
Injuries, lineups, starting goalies/pitchers, weather, and advanced metrics—including xG, EPA, DVOA, and FIP—were not considered. Referee and active-official information was also unavailable.
The historical database contains 1,716 games, but the recovery component uses 80. Individual comparable-game results and detailed schedule-density inputs were not supplied, limiting independent verification of the recovery signal.
Price threshold
Break-even decimal odds = 1 / win probability = 1 / 0.41120842288882786 = 2.4318568014117616, approximately 2.43.
The offered 2.75 clears that threshold. Positive model value requires a price above the unrounded break-even level.