NHL · Moneyline · Avery Shaw “The Recovery”
Vancouver Canucks moneyline
Published odds
+170
kalshi · 2.70 dec
Model prob.
44.6%
Market (no-vig)
36.8%
Probability edge
7.7 points
Estimated return / stake
+10.0% (capped)
After uncertainty: +10.0% (capped)
Stake
1.0u
confidence 85%
A large model edge is a reason to be cautious, not a promise.
We cap displayed expected return at +10% and probability edge at 10 percentage points. Higher estimates are marked “Estimate caution.” This is a display safeguard, not proof the true edge is 10%. Original estimates remain visible in each pick’s analysis. Missing injuries, lineups or stale odds can inflate an estimate; any pick can lose.
Original estimates at publication (uncapped)
Expected return: +20.3% · Probability edge: 7.7 percentage points · Uncertainty-adjusted return: +18.1%. These are model estimates, not realized profits or guaranteed advantages.
Analysis
Written analysis pending.